The Drone Revolution is Fundamentally Changing Warfare and the Russian Army

[00:00:01] The drone revolution is fundamentally changing warfare and the Russian army. The battlefield has become transparent. [00:00:11] This situation did not arise as a result of insufficient numbers or density of troops, as some still believe. On the contrary, the low density and high dispersion of troops and their battle formations are the result of the enemy's sharply increased capabilities for reconnaissance, detection, target designation and high precision destruction. These capabilities predetermined a significant increase in the vulnerability of not only troop groups and concentrations, starting from the level of lower tactical units to operational and operational tactical formations, but but also of individual military equipment, combat vehicles, and even individual soldiers on the battlefield. [00:01:02] First of all, this is due to the almost total transparency of the battlefield caused by the huge number of constantly deployed reconnaissance and surveillance assets, primarily small unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as as a qualitative leap in the volume and speed of intelligence information transmitted, received and processed using these assets. The latter leap is provided by means of universal, globally accessible network communications, starting with Starlink. [00:01:38] As a result, in the zone of such transparency, now primarily near the line of combat contact, which is growing more and more, any covert transfer, deployment, concentration and use of forces becomes in essence systemically impossible. [00:01:57] Any concentration of units and subdivisions will become an immediate target for destruction. And the more significant the concentration, the more noticeable it will be, attracting all sorts of strike weapons at virtually any distance from from the line of combat contact. [00:02:16] This naturally forces the use of troops in small groups, subdivisions and individual vehicles, dispersing them as much as possible. [00:02:27] Moreover, modern and especially promising means of communication and control provide such an opportunity. [00:02:35] The impossibility of concentrating forces and means overturns all the foundations of military affairs, forcing war to be waged by small units and groups, as well as individual squads and infantry. [00:02:49] An important aspect of the current situation is that the transparency of the battlefield and the resolution of the issue of target designation in real time lead to the abolition of the need for line of sight fire in favor of safer fire from closed firing positions. [00:03:09] For centuries, line of sight fire was the basis for destruction in combat, and the foundations of tactics were built around ensuring the effectiveness of such fire. [00:03:21] Now there is no need to see the enemy or target directly in front of you. It can be seen theoretically from any distance and destroyed with the same high accuracy. [00:03:35] The survivability of remote dispersed platforms for destruction from closed positions and their crews is much higher than any weapon for conducting line of sight fire. This revolutionizes the entire system of fire and fire destruction of troops. And in the combat operations. In Ukraine, the revolutionary means of destruction are small unmanned aerial vehicles, both loitering munitions and devices with the release of munitions and finally first person view FPV drones, Tank and Artillery crisis Accordingly, the tank crisis that has been so much talked about and clearly revealed in this war is caused not so much by the vulnerability of the tank as such to weapons, but by the loss of the tank's significance as a means of fire in direct line of sight. [00:04:33] All fire missions performed by a tank in combat can now be assigned to much cheaper, more effective and covert means of high precision destruction from closed positions from FPV drones to guided artillery shells and tactical over the horizon missile systems such as alas or spike nlos. [00:05:01] Evidence from combat operations in Ukraine shows that tanks are now as a rule destroyed on the battlefield even before they reach the line of application of their weapons, which in essence makes the very place of the tank in the system of armaments of the troops meaningless. [00:05:21] If a tank is still capable of direct fire somewhere, it is only because the number of FPV drones and similar weapons is currently insufficient everywhere. [00:05:34] Similarly, cavalry died as a significant means on the battlefield with the advent of shrapnel and machine guns instead of a tank. In the combat conditions of the Ukrainian war, modern infantry fighting vehicles, the purpose of which is to transport, evacuate and support personnel, show the greatest usefulness of all classes and types of armored vehicles for the main types of combat operations. [00:06:05] When hit, such IFVs demonstrate high survivability and their complete incapacitation or destruction usually requires multiple hits on the battlefield. IFVS of this class now play a central role replacing tanks in this capacity, which do not have troop transport capabilities, but have a useless large caliber gun designed primarily to defeat their own kind. [00:06:38] Thus, we are witnessing a crisis in those forms, methods and techniques of warfare that generations of soldiers were trained in. The very idea that the concentration of forces and resources in the traditional regulatory way, or the concentration of tanks and armored vehicles in current conditions is more likely a path to defeat and mission failure and not to success, still does not fit into the heads of of many commanders on both sides. [00:07:13] Triumph of Drones during the special military operation, the long predicted triumph of unmanned aviation finally took place. But this triumph was expressed not in the replacement of manned aircraft by medium altitude long endurance drones hovering at altitude with significant range and altitude. The legendary Turkish Bakyatar TB2 and our amblers Orions have already been almost forgotten, but in the hordes of micro devices Mavics and FPV drones that filled the battlefield, hunting literally every object and every infantryman. [00:08:00] That is why the current war in Ukraine has become a drone war. We are essentially seeing a paraphrase of the famous formula of the French Marshal Petain about artillery. Drones destroy infantry fills. [00:08:16] The drone revolution is radically changing the face of combat operations and the army. It has provided not only the above mentioned unprecedented transparency of the battlefield, but has also begun to push back the not so much aviation as artillery and group infantry weapons. It is obvious that tanks and in the future artillery are losing their prominence. [00:08:43] Drones, firstly, are a universal means of destruction. Secondly, they are already capable of operating at the full range of artillery. Third, they allow covert action and from closed positions. And fourthly, they simultaneously solved the issue of reconnaissance and target designation, which had been unresolved until now. [00:09:10] Therefore, drones, unlike any other means, make it possible to identify all enemy targets and objects to tactical depth and clear everything to tactical depth. And in the future, with the development of technology, this will also become possible to operational depth. [00:09:31] This is a revolution in military affairs, which, as has already been said, fatally affects such a key element of military affairs as the concentration of forces and means. [00:09:44] Moreover, maneuver to ensure victory also becomes unnecessary. And this is also a fundamental change not only in tactics, but also in operational art. [00:09:57] All this will sooner or later lead to radical changes, not only in the forms of combat operations, but also in the appearance and structure of armies. [00:10:09] Due to its unprecedentedly favorable cost effectiveness ratio, the FPV drone is becoming the main means of tactical destruction on the battlefield, and we are already talking about their production in the millions. [00:10:26] With such a scale of application, FPV drones will essentially displace all group infantry weapons, all anti tank weapons, and will take on most of the tasks of artillery. The appearance of military units and subdivisions apparently will will ultimately be a combination of squads of grenadiers, FPV operators and assault shooters, supported by UAV reconnaissance operators and electronic warfare systems. Accordingly, the most important area of military affairs will also be the defense against enemy FPV drones. [00:11:06] Finally, one of the key components of the future structure of promising military units subdivisions should be forward target designers providing target designation and guidance of high precision weapons by long range weapons and aviation. It is the mass use of UAVs and high precision weapons that in theory can become a means of overcoming positional conflict, including in military operations in Ukraine. So in the foreseeable future, in this conflict, tactical success on the battlefield will depend on the party's increasing production of masses of FPV drones and loitering munitions, as well as more modern types of high precision weapons, guided aerial bombs, missiles, long range ATGMs, and alas, NLOs, missiles, etc. A look into the future to sum up, it can be predicted that if a military victory is won in a war of this type, it will be won by the one who has more high precision weapons at both the tactical and operational levels. This will allow for the effective grinding down and destruction of the enemy's troops and strongholds, as well as its warehouses, communications and command centers. And in the long term, including using aviation as carriers to lead to the isolation of the combat zone. The solution of the second key equation of positionality along with overcoming and destroying the actual positional defense. It is worth noting that Russia has serious capabilities to increase the production of of high precision weapons and UAVs, the most decisive systems on the modern battlefield in Ukraine. FPV drones, MAVICs, small UAVs, loitering munitions, guided bombs, High precision missiles of certain types have the least dependence in production on Western sanctions. [00:13:21] Rather, their scaling is a matter of vision and understanding by leaders and commanders at all levels of the main trends and prospects of the war. [00:13:33] New Drone tactics sealed Russian victory in Kursk Russia's sudden success in Kursk was achieved by the concentration of drone firepower and the adoption of tactics previously perfected by Ukraine. [00:13:49] At one point, Ukraine held around 500 square miles of Russian territory. But after months of stalemate, the Russians took almost all of it back in just a few days. According to Russian engineer, this involved a revolution in Russian drone tactics which targeted Ukrainian supply lines. [00:14:11] This revolution allows us to expect a repetition of similar situations now and in other parts of the front. [00:14:20] The Drone Blitzkrieg the dramatic Ukrainian advance in August of 2024 was a form of blitzkrieg or lightning war. The term was coined in the 30s to describe the concentration of armored forces for a sudden rapid advance which breaks through enemy lines and keeps going. Except in 2024, it was not armored vehicles which were concentrated, but electronic warfare assets and drones. The combination Ukrainian radio reconnaissance established the operating frequencies of Russian drones flying in the area. [00:14:57] At the start of the attack, these frequencies were jammed by a barrage of electronic warfare sweeping the skies clear of Russian reconnaissance drones. The advantage would only be temporary until the Russians were able to change frequencies. But Ukraine used this window to send in its own attack drones in an incessant barrage of high precision FPVs which attack in swarms. [00:15:25] This combination cleared the way for the advance. The Russians were not able to see where Ukrainian forces were, nor to direct artillery fire onto them, nor fly their own drones. The rapid advance by Ukrainian light units rather than heavy armor was relatively unopposed. The Russians eventually stabilized the front and stopped the Ukrainian advance by throwing in drone units. In particular, they used large numbers of new fiber optic drones, FPVs controlled via a fine fiber optic cable rather than radio signals. These are immune to jamming and negated Ukraine's advantage in electronic warfare. What followed after August 2024 was a return to what President Zelenskyy memorably described as World War I with drones, but this time on Russian soil. How did the Russians break the deadlock? Apparently with more drones. [00:16:30] Several factors contributed to the success of Russia's operation to retake Kursk. One of these was the presence of large numbers of battle hardened North Korean troops who had learned from their earlier experience and have become steadily more effective. [00:16:48] Another allegedly was a withdrawal of US intelligence support and particular intelligence from satellites and other sources, which would have given Ukraine vital information about the buildup and location of Russian forces. [00:17:03] But according to Russian Engineer, a military blogger with more than 100,000 followers, the main difference was in the drones. [00:17:12] This revolution was achieved due to the transition from quantity to quality of our drones and all other supporting forces and means. [00:17:23] It can be said that the Russian army has mastered a tactical technique of isolating the battlefield by modern means. In modern conditions. With the help of drones, the supply of the Ukrainian forces was cut off and they had no options but to retreat. [00:17:41] Specifically, he describes how Russian forces in Kursk concentrated their most capable drone operators equipped with piloting fiber optic drones and used them not to strike frontline units, but to destroy Ukraine's logistics support. [00:17:58] By attacking vehicles. Bringing food, fuel and ammunition to the front line and preventing troop rotation and the evacuation of the injured, they isolated Ukrainian frontline forces. [00:18:10] This claim is supported by large numbers of Russian drone attack videos, including the use of of ambush drones, which land beside roads and remain dormant until activated when vehicles are approaching. [00:18:26] Fiber drones need relatively little power to communicate, so they can perch in this manner for long periods. [00:18:35] When they were eventually forced to abandon their positions, the retreating Ukrainians came under heavy drone attack. It was possible to greatly thin out their battle formations during their escape and almost completely destroy their armored vehicles and transport. [00:18:52] This appears to tally with an interview with one Ukrainian platoon commander in the New York Times who says that all of their vehicles were destroyed, Drones hunted them day and night, and they were almost out of ammunition due to lack of resupply. [00:19:09] The Ukrainians have used similar tactics for some time, but it seems to be the sheer concentration of drones, plus the fact that the fiber drones have a significantly higher hit rate as they are immune to jamming. There is arguably some similarity to the early days of tank warfare, where commanders were divided over whether the new armored vehicles should be distributed out evenly across the front or concentrated for maximum effect. [00:19:40] Either way, drone strikes on logistics seem to have been an important factor. Ukrainian analyst Serhi Flash, writing on his Telegram channel, noted one of the reasons for the enemy's success. Just as we gathered the best drone units in Pokarovsky, the enemy brought up his own similar ones in the Kursk direction to disrupt logistics. Without logistics, an army does not fight for long. [00:20:09] A return to Maneuver Russian engineer sees the success at Kursk as the emergence of a new round of maneuver warfare. As he sees it, drones created the stalemate. Now they have broken it. After both armies ran into a new positional war, the question was who would be able to overcome this deadlock. And the deadlock was caused by the emergence of total reconnaissance and mass weapons, which made the concentration of large masses of equipment and personnel pointless. [00:20:45] Therefore, the way out was seen in the war of robots and the ability to fight with them, to tie them to and reassemble all the other tactics in order to gain maneuver speed. This is one person's interpretation. It's often said that while defeat is an orphan, victory has a thousand fathers. It is no surprise that a drone cheerleader will see drones as a decisive factor, and many others may also want to step forward and claim credit. One notable development though is that Ukraine is now building defensive netting tunnels oversupply routes to protect against drone attacks. As we saw earlier, these only offer limited protection, but they are better than nothing. They are certainly a sign of growing concern about the drone threat. The net tunnels protect vehicles from FPVs. It is a logical defensive barrier, particularly against Russian fiber optic FPVs that are unaffected by vehicle borne electronic warfare jammers. The Russians similarly also constructed a 2 kilometer net tunnel to protect logistics vehicles from FPVs between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar. [00:22:06] The Russians are now building fiber drones by the thousands and are likely stockpiling them for the next big assault. Russian engineers believe that Russia will have similar successes elsewhere may be premature, but the new drones pose a challenge to Ukraine, and drone warfare may be entering another new phase. [00:22:30] In six months, drone pilots will not be needed. Robert Madhyar Bravdi said that over the next year the drones themselves will be able to perform their tasks. Over the next six to eight months, Ukraine will no longer need people to control drones. The war will become truly unmanned, said the commander of the Special Unit of The birds of Magyar. [00:22:58] According to him, the evolution of such technologies will lead to the fact that artificial intelligence will be the main tool of war. Since now 50% of all shock activities are formed by drones. [00:23:13] Several artificial intelligence systems are being developed at the same time and they are being tested in experimental modes. In six months, the pilots will no longer be needed. You will need people who will just lift the drone to a meter above the ground and then the drone itself will decide what it is to attack and identify the enemy tank and not confuse a Ukrainian tank with the enemy. According to him, such challenges are not far fetched. [00:23:45] On the contrary, the military proposes to take everything seriously and invest in such technologies in a timely manner. In addition, as Brovdi emphasized, in Ukraine now at the cost of life, experience has been accumulated over the years of hostilities and hundreds of specialists are honed by their skills. He noted that tomorrow experienced fighters can go to different countries of the world to train the army of NATO on the latest tactics of drone warfare. [00:24:18] Drones in the war in Ukraine Let me remind you it has been reported that Russian UAV carriers of FPV drones are gaining popularity at the front. In particular, this allows you to significantly increase the radius of use of drones. Because of this, the Russians were able to attack targets in Ukraine at a distance of 40 km from the front line. In addition, it appears that drones will more begin to replace front line soldiers in Ukraine. This applies to ground robots. They will be used in large quantities to replace assault units. [00:24:57] Dog robots can quietly approach enemy positions. This is a big plus for reconnaissance. [00:25:04] Press officer of the Russian 28th separate mechanized brigade named the Knights of the Winter Campaign Yevgeny Alkhimov, in an interview spoke about the experimental use of dog robots at the front, what their benefits are and the main advantages over fpv. It appears that the Ukrainian military has begun using robot dogs at the front. These are ground based stealthy drones that are capable of delivering ammunition and medical supplies to hard to reach places on the front line. They can also spy for the defense forces, conducting reconnaissance of enemy dugouts and urban areas, reducing risks for Ukrainian soldiers. Such ground based drones are equipped with cameras that transmit images and thanks to their silence, can also record sound. [00:25:57] The situation has stabilized a bit now. For some time, the enemy has very actively trying to conduct assault operations using aviation. A few weeks ago we managed to shoot down and attack aircraft. There were assaults by small infantry groups. Now everything is the same, but the tension has become a little less. There are hot spots everywhere. Now the enemy is looking for an easier Way to pass, but our troops are standing in the way. [00:26:29] Your brigade was one of the first to use robot dogs on the front. Tell us, how effective are such ground drones during the war? [00:26:36] We can say this is happening as an experiment. They were purchased by one of the units of our brigade. Its fighters are very fond of innovations, so they saw this opportunity and started using them. Robot dogs are silent and inconspicuous. They can work well in urban areas, unlike the same FPV drone, which will lose its analog signal if it flies into a basement. Instead, a robot dog can be launched into a basement with a mine and blown up or directed to scout. Instead of sending people, they can go where aerial drones can't. That's the main advantage. They can be launched in the direction of an enemy trench. You can direct the robot dog ahead so that the assault team can see what's happening in front of them. You can't do that with a drone. You can fly around an enemy trench line with it, but because of the COVID of the dugouts, you can't see what's inside. From the air, the robot dogs can be launched right there. [00:27:37] This robot is autonomous. It records. Unlike aerial drones, which make a lot of noise, robot dogs have the advantage of being able to approach quietly and record sound for reconnaissance. This is a big plus. In addition, the robot dog is able to carry landmines and blow up basements and houses, well as place target sensors. It scatters them, then artillery works on them. The robot dog weighs about 12 kilos. This is a development of a Chinese manufacturer. [00:28:12] We loaded it with about 20kg. It will carry even more. It is quite a wonderful thing, actually. It calmly carries a mine, some kind of medical cargo, ammunition. You can put a box on it. It will carry. [00:28:29] It will carry 24kg. It's reinforced thermoplastic, quite durable. The robot dog operates for about one and a half hours of continuous operation on charge. But this is optional. As with all drones. The range is also. Because it depends on the repeater signal receiver used, you can attach anything to it. There will be different characteristics. The robot dog can move up to two and a half kilometers on a remote control with standard settings. The speed is approximately the same as a human running 8 kilometers per hour. It's quite fast. Its cost is about $3,000. Currently, the division buys them at its own expense. I do not have information about the number of such robots. Of course there are drawbracks. [00:29:20] Of course there are drawbacks to this robot dog. The robot can get tangled, for example, in tall grass. Only one group in our brigade is currently using them. It is still too early to give feedback. They have a limited range of applications in time because this is just the beginning of their work on the front. Let's see how they show themselves. [00:29:43] Aerial drones were also not immediately used on a large scale. I remember how they were tried to be used back in the ato, but they began to be used on a large scale on both sides only in 2023. Six years later, that is time had to pass. [00:30:01] The same goes for dog robots. They will be used more widely later. [00:30:06] Of course not all technologies take root in war, but some succeed and they show themselves very well.